for the lower eastern shore of maryland
Lower Eastern Shore of Maryland (CEDS)
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II. KEY DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS |
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For the most part, the data presented is from the 2000 U.S. Census unless otherwise noted. The tables below illustrate demographic and economic trends that are occurring in the region. Information about land use, natural resources and the environment is found in APPENDIX 8. Information about previous economic development efforts and a SWOT analysis are found in APPENDIX 9. A. Background Beginning in the mid-20th Century, the Bay Bridges removed the Lower Eastern Shore from isolation and altered the agriculture and fishing base that had existed for over 200 years. The three counties—Somerset, Wicomico and Worcester—remain similar in some ways but have also retained some of their own individual characteristics. At the present time, the LES finds itself at a crossroads with its three largest basic industries—agriculture, poultry production, and tourism - facing significant challenges due to current economic trends. These trends pose a threat to the area’s rural character as growth continues. The LES is seeking to promote economic diversity while retaining the historical nature of the region. Encouraging, while also controlling, this transition has dominated the planning process for the last two decades. B. Demographics The three-county LES area is changing rapidly. TABLE 1 below shows general regional trends compared to the entire State of Maryland. The table reveals that, between 2000 and 2006, all three counties grew at a fairly consistent rate. This represents a change from 1990-2000, when Somerset grew at a much slower rate (5.6%) than either Wicomico (13.9%) or Worcester (32.9%). All three counties experienced significant residential development, as evidenced by the number of housing units authorized for construction and increasing population density.
Also of growing importance is the portion of the population that is 65+ years-of-age, shown in TABLE 2. In 2000, this cohort made up 11.3% of the State’s population, with Somerset (14.2%) and Wicomico (12.8%) slightly higher. However, Worcester, like many seaside resort areas, was much higher at 20.1%. By 2030, over 1/3 of Worcester’s population is projected to be 65+. Much of this growth is attributable to retirees moving to the Eastern Shore, particularly waterfront communities such as Worcester County. This trend has been noted by the CEDS Committee as both an opportunity and a concern for planning.
The racial composition of the LES population is shown in TABLE 3 below. The region is over-represented by Whites and under-represented by every other ethnic group when compared to the rest of Maryland. In every ethnic group except Whites, the greatest disparities with the State are in Somerset and Worcester Counties. In the White ethnic group, the greatest disparities with the State are in Wicomico and Worcester Counties.
The population within counties is also not uniform. As TABLE 1A in APPENDIX 6 shows, many of the Census-defined entities have experienced large population shifts. From the large percent decline of Smith Island (-19.6%) to the more than doubling (147%) of population in Ocean Pines, there is the indication that the region has pockets of prosperity and pockets of distress. The goals or outcomes of the CEDS Strategy Committee included the diversification of the economy as well as workforce development to remedy some of this distress. Nowhere are these outcomes more needed than in the poverty of the region’s population. This indicator presents stark evidence of the need for a basic shift in economic forces:
The figures for Somerset County indicate how the declines in the agriculture and food-processing industries have caused more distress than the seasonality of the tourism/hospitality industry in Worcester County. This distress falls disproportionately on the minority population, causing a cycle of poverty (see TABLE 5), since poor schools cannot improve due to the declining tax base. Any new projects or programs must target these groups as part of their strategies and consider impacts on them.
C. Industrial Profile The types of industries that dominate an economy dictate the incomes and, especially in the case of a seasonal industry, the unemployment rate of the workforce. The following table reports the employment contribution of each major industry group for the LES as well as for Maryland in total.
As TABLE 6 illustrates, the LES region is over-represented in the goods producing sector. Manufacturing still accounts for 16.04% of all jobs despite a decline of 0.12% between 2002 and 2006. As expected from a tourism destination, leisure and hospitality (17.50%) is also over-represented. State and local government remain important sources of employment. From 2002 to 2006, the area continued an expansion in educational and health services (12.72% growth), construction (22.06% growth), financial activities (16.99% growth), professional and business services (14.60% growth), and other services (7.73% growth). This reflects growing residential development, an aging population in need of health services, and a continuing transition away from a resource-based economy and towards a knowledge-based economy. The region remains under-represented in the higher-level financial activities, professional and business services, and federal government employment. It is not unusual to ask whether or not the low educational attainment reported in TABLE 1 is a cause or consequence of the industrial structure. This is not always obvious and depends on whether there are demand or supply constraints for the businesses that require higher educational attainment. Further investigation is necessary to establish the link. TABLE 7 below reports the number of employment units reporting in the last three years in various economic activity sectors.
TABLE 7 suggests that while the greatest number of new firms is financial services, there are also substantial increases in government, construction, and professional and business services firms. These patterns require further investigation to establish the development of new clusters or growth prompted by servicing existing industries. Locational considerations are an important factor as new businesses breed other new ones. To cluster growing firms and support services geographically should be part of the cluster development effort. The identification of emerging clusters, the deepening of existing clusters, or the incubation of new clusters are all economic development strategies that the CEDS Strategy Committee have discussed. The research on this process in the LES economy needs to be accelerated. To recommend projects or programs that will run counter to the natural economic forces at work or the assets in place will waste resources and also stall progress in much needed growth areas. D. Labor Market Trends: Employment and Occupations As in most relatively isolated labor markets, the occupations of LES residents are closely related to the region’s industrial structure, especially since out-commuting is limited by geography and available transportation modes. TABLE 8 below shows the occupational characteristics:
As expected, the region lags behind in the management and professional area. Manufacturing jobs are reported in the last category. Once again, it is necessary to do further investigation to see if some of the growth industries mentioned above are constrained by the unavailability of qualified workers. Health services is an area in need of workforce improvement to accommodate its growth. This provides entrance into an industry with many career ladders and opportunities for advancement. The general characteristics of the labor market can be seen in other indicators. Relative unemployment rates and per capita incomes are among the criteria for funding eligibility by many Federal agencies. These figures show how the region fares in comparison to the nation and the rest of the state. In both of these cases, the LES shows the existence of economic distress, if not for the entire region, at least in many parts of it. As TABLE 9 illustrates, the region’s unemployment rate exceeds the nation’s and Maryland’s. While Wicomico County does not exhibit high unemployment, TABLES 3A and 4A in APPENDIX 6 show where smaller Census places exist with higher levels of distress[1]. In terms of per capita income (PCI), the area lags well behind the State. Somerset’s level is only 59% of the national level. This is a very compelling reason for State agencies to assist in the prosperity of the LES. A leveling of PCI will bring much needed tax revenue and will raise the living standard of residents.
The Census areas can be grouped or further disaggregated to identify funding eligibility, depending upon the nature of the project. TABLE 4A in APPENDIX 6 includes the districts and places that reported high unemployment rates in the 2000 Census. Many of those shown below have extremely high unemployment rates in the midst of relatively low county rates. This further illustrates the uneven nature of the growth occurring in the region as well as the need for training to increase current area residents’ participation in further prosperity. Since the entire LES region lags behind the state and nation in PCI, it is not surprising that many places had less than 80% of the national level in 1999. TABLE 4A reports the PCI for these places. Once again, it should be noted that extremely low incomes are a consequence of the industrial structure of the region as well as the skills of the workforce and unemployment rates. Strategies to remedy both causes are included in the CEDS. E. Regional Infrastructure Many of the projects recommended in this CEDS are enhancements or additions to the regional infrastructure. Some, like the Salisbury-Ocean City-Wicomico Airport Business Center, are intended to increase activity where there is now excess capacity. Other projects are intended to provide infrastructure where none now exists, as with the need for an information transmission backbone. Another pervasive need in the region is for transportation improvements to tie together activity nodes without encouraging sprawl. Without this, residents, businesses and tourists will demand the continuous development of new activity nodes adjacent to the most convenient routes. This will promote sprawl and limit the integration of the entire region into the economic development pattern which this CEDS seeks to promote. The metropolitan status of Wicomico County bestows upon it the funds to establish the first Metropolitan Planning Organization on the Lower Eastern Shore. This MPO should continue the process of transportation planning that works in accordance with this CEDS. |
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