for the lower eastern shore of maryland
Lower Eastern Shore of Maryland (CEDS)
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II. KEY DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS |
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For the most part, the data presented is from the 2000 U.S. Census unless otherwise noted. The tables below illustrate demographic and economic trends that are occurring in the region. Information about land use, natural resources and the environment is found in APPENDIX 8. Information about previous economic development efforts and a SWOT analysis are found in APPENDIX 9. A. Background Beginning in the mid-20th Century, the Bay Bridges removed the Lower Eastern Shore from isolation and altered the agriculture and fishing base that had existed for over 200 years. The three counties—Somerset, Wicomico and Worcester—remain similar in some ways but have also retained some of their own individual characteristics. At the present time, the LES finds itself at a crossroads with its three largest basic industries—agriculture, poultry production, and tourism - facing significant challenges due to current economic trends. These trends pose a threat to the area’s rural character as growth continues. The LES is seeking to promote economic diversity while retaining the historical nature of the region. Encouraging, while also controlling, this transition has dominated the planning process for the last two decades. B. Demographics The three-county LES area is changing rapidly. TABLE 1 below shows general regional trends compared to the entire State of Maryland. The table reveals that, between 2000 and 2006, all three counties grew at a fairly consistent rate. This represents a change from 1990-2000, when Somerset grew at a much slower rate (5.6%) than either Wicomico (13.9%) or Worcester (32.9%). All three counties experienced significant residential development, as evidenced by the number of housing units authorized for construction and increasing population density.
Also of growing importance is the portion of the population that is 65+ years-of-age, shown in TABLE 2. In 2000, this cohort made up 11.3% of the State’s population, with Somerset (14.2%) and Wicomico (12.8%) slightly higher. However, Worcester, like many seaside resort areas, was much higher at 20.1%. By 2030, over 1/3 of Worcester’s population is projected to be 65+. Much of this growth is attributable to retirees moving to the Eastern Shore, particularly waterfront communities such as Worcester County. This trend has been noted by the CEDS Committee as both an opportunity and a concern for planning.
The racial composition of the LES population is shown in TABLE 3 below. The region is over-represented by Whites and under-represented by every other ethnic group when compared to the rest of Maryland. In every ethnic group except Whites, the greatest disparities with the State are in Somerset and Worcester Counties. In the White ethnic group, the greatest disparities with the State are in Wicomico and Worcester Counties.
The population within counties is also not uniform. As TABLE 1A in APPENDIX 6 shows, many of the Census-defined entities have experienced large population shifts. From the large percent decline of Smith Island (-19.6%) to the more than doubling (147%) of population in Ocean Pines, there is the indication that the region has pockets of prosperity and pockets of distress. The goals or outcomes of the CEDS Strategy Committee included the diversification of the economy as well as workforce development to remedy some of this distress. Nowhere are these outcomes more needed than in the poverty of the region’s population. This indicator presents stark evidence of the need for a basic shift in economic forces:
The figures for Somerset County indicate how the declines in the agriculture and food-processing industries have caused more distress than the seasonality of the tourism/hospitality industry in Worcester County. This distress falls disproportionately on the minority population, causing a cycle of poverty (see TABLE 5), since poor schools cannot improve due to the declining tax base. Any new projects or programs must target these groups as part of their strategies and consider impacts on them.
C. Industrial Profile The types of industries that dominate an economy dictate the incomes and, especially in the case of a seasonal industry, the unemployment rate of the workforce. The following table reports the employment contribution of each major industry group for the LES as well as for Maryland in total.
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